NFL: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (8:15 PM ET, NBC)

Though only by a combined five points, the Jaguars have put together season saving back-to-back wins to even their record at 2-2.

2008-10-03

Though only by a combined five points, the Jaguars have put together season saving back-to-back wins to even their record at 2-2. They’ll look to go above .500 with what would be a key win over a fellow AFC playoff contender when they host Pittsburgh on NBC’s Football night in America feature. Jacksonville is a 4-point favorite at last check.

These teams are well-familiar with one another, having last met in the wildcard round of last year’s playoffs. Jacksonville won that game in Pittsburgh 31-29, its fourth straight win over the Steelers. In fact, HC Jack Del Rio’s team owns a significant edge in this head-to-head series, going 7-2 ATS in the L9. The advantage is even bigger in Jacksonville, with the Jaguars 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS at home. Pittsburgh comes off the Monday night game, hoping to improve on a 3-7-1 ATS record heading into its bye week.

The Steelers, who also fell to the Jags a month before the playoffs, were without leading rusher Willie Parker for the wild-card game and will be again after he sat out Monday night against Baltimore with a sprained knee. Without Parker, Pittsburgh ran for only 43 yards on 26 carries in the playoff loss. He had 100 yards on only 14 carries in the 29-22
regular-season setback.

Parker led all rushers in 2007 with seven 100-yard games, and he came out of the gate this season by topping the century mark against both Houston (138 yards, three touchdowns) and Cleveland (105 yards). In a Week 3 loss in Philadelphia, he was held to 20 yards on 13 carries. Making matters worse for Pittsburgh, rookie Rashard Mendenhall was lost for the season in the Monday night win versus Baltimore.

Without much of a running attack, the burden falls to Ben Roethlisberger to play an exceptional game. Of course he's capable if healthy. He suffered a sore wrist in the loss to the Eagles. Who wouldn't after getting sacked nine times? Big Ben must seek Hines Ward and Heath Miller underneath and take a few shots with Santonio Holmes deep outside the numbers.

Pittsburgh's defense had trouble with Jacksonville's ground attack in the regular-season meeting a year ago but shut it down in the playoffs. The Jags ran 44 times and averaged over five yards a carry in the December game. When Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are motoring, it creates options for David Garrard, who is off to a mediocre start in the passing game with a 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

PREDICTION
It was uncharacteristic of both defenses to have these teams combine for 111 points against each other a year ago. Four of the previous six meetings saw fewer than 35 points scored, and that's what can be expected again. At home, and with an extra day of rest, the Jaguars get a slight nod. JACKSONVILLE 19, PITTSBURGH 13

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